Why isn't oil above $100 despite supply disruptions?
Despite recent escalations in the US-Iran conflict disrupting oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, global benchmark Brent crude has remained below $100 a barrel. While shipments have decreased from pre-conflict levels of 18 million barrels per day to around 11 million, increased production from Iraq, Kuwait, the US, Canada, and Ghana has helped fill supply gaps. Additionally, softer demand, particularly from China, has capped prices, though recent signs of a diesel shortage may put upward pressure on the market. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have raised their fourth-quarter forecasts for Brent crude.
The persistent inability of oil prices to break $100 despite significant geopolitical disruptions highlights the complex interplay of supply, demand, and global production capacity, with potential implications for inflation and economic growth.
BRENT CRUDE US-IRAN CONFLICT STRAIT OF HORMUZ MORGAN STANLEY GOLDMAN SACHS
